Our forecasts
Our calls, with deadlines
30 forecasts using the same approach: extend announced policy and recurring patterns, with an India-centred view. Every one has a date, a probability and a source, and we score all of them, including the misses.
These are speculation, not advice. Probabilities are our honest estimates on the day they were made. "Consensus" says whether markets or reporting already expect the outcome; those calls are less impressive if they hit. Not financial, investment or betting advice. Probabilities are estimates and will often be wrong.
Calibration
| Probability band | Resolved | Avg. probability | Hit rate |
|---|
If we are calibrated, the hit rate in each band should be close to its average probability.